MLB · Starting Pitcher · Atlanta Braves
6' 2", 220 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.7% | 8.0% | 9.8% | 0.0553 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ATL | 19 | 19 | 108.7 | 101 | 49 | 33 | 90 | 4.06 | 1.23 |
| 2025 | ATL | 28 | 28 | 156.3 | 167 | 92 | 51 | 131 | 5.30 | 1.39 |
| Strikeout | 19.8% | 20.9% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 15.4% | 14.5% | 14.0% | 0.1272 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 2.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 0.0465 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0054 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.7% | 3.1% | 2.9% | 0.0633 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .304 | .298 | .315 | 0.2978 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 454 | .304 | .298 | 102 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 676 | .334 | .307 | 97 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 226 | .368 | .312 | 95 |
| 2024 |
| ATL |
| 10 |
| 10 |
| 49.7 |
| 64 |
| 36 |
| 17 |
| 46 |
| 6.52 |
| 1.63 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
