MLB · Center Fielder · Baltimore Orioles
6' 3", 220 lbs · age 26 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.6% | 12.8% | 9.8% | 0.0885 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BAL | 91 | 214 | 28 | 44 | 8 | 27 | 33 | 74 | .206 |
| 2025 | BAL | 92 | 327 | 36 | 64 | 16 | 40 | 27 | 128 | .196 |
| Strikeout | 29.6% | 28.0% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 13.2% | 13.6% | 14.0% | 0.1193 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 1.2% | 4.0% | 4.1% | 0.0493 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0043 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.0607 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .289 | .322 | .303 | 0.3221 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 250 | .289 | .322 | 106 |
| 2025 | batter | 359 | .283 | .299 | 100 |
| 2024 | batter | 559 | .329 | .322 | 108 |
| 2024 |
| BAL |
| 153 |
| 499 |
| 77 |
| 121 |
| 24 |
| 69 |
| 52 |
| 172 |
| .242 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
