MLB · Starting Pitcher · Seattle Mariners
6' 2", 200 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 4.2% | 6.5% | 9.8% | 0.0448 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SEA | 12 | 11 | 68.7 | 52 | 21 | 11 | 71 | 2.75 | 0.92 |
| 2025 | SEA | 18 | 18 | 90.3 | 93 | 57 | 34 | 74 | 5.68 | 1.41 |
| Strikeout | 27.1% | 26.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 13.0% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 0.1188 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 1.9% | 3.8% | 4.1% | 0.0466 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.8% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0056 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.2% | 3.2% | 2.9% | 0.0635 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .263 | .279 | .315 | 0.2794 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 262 | .263 | .279 | 109 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 390 | .347 | .307 | 97 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 703 | .258 | .265 | 112 |
| 2024 |
| SEA |
| 31 |
| 31 |
| 180.3 |
| 131 |
| 59 |
| 45 |
| 171 |
| 2.94 |
| 0.98 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
