MLB · Center Fielder · Chicago Cubs
6' 0", 184 lbs · age 24 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.5% | 12.9% | 9.8% | 0.0891 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | CHC | 103 | 383 | 67 | 109 | 22 | 56 | 53 | 118 | .285 |
| 2025 | CHC | 157 | 591 | 91 | 146 | 31 | 95 | 29 | 155 | .247 |
| Strikeout | 26.5% | 25.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 14.6% | 14.4% | 14.0% | 0.1261 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 3.8% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0510 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 1.1% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0101 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 0.0865 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .386 | .363 | .303 | 0.3629 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 445 | .386 | .363 | 119 |
| 2025 | batter | 640 | .321 | .307 | 103 |
| 2024 | batter | 400 | .287 | .294 | 99 |
| 2024 |
| CHC |
| 123 |
| 372 |
| 46 |
| 88 |
| 10 |
| 47 |
| 21 |
| 98 |
| .237 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
