MLB · Right Fielder · Milwaukee Brewers
5' 11", 205 lbs · age 24 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.0% | 7.7% | 9.2% | 0.0528 | 136 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIL | 9 | 20 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 7 | .200 |
| 2025 | SF | 57 | 172 | 26 | 38 | 8 | 22 | 11 | 27 | .221 |
| Strikeout | 14.7% | 16.2% | 22.8% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 10.9% | 12.8% | 14.1% | 0.1121 | 264 |
|---|
| Double | 4.9% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 0.0530 | 3226 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0057 | 383 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.3% | 3.6% | 2.7% | 0.0719 | 179 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .294 | .295 | .296 | 0.2954 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | batter | 184 | .294 | .295 | 99 |
| 2024 | batter | 155 | .247 | .280 | 94 |
| 2024 |
| SF |
| 45 |
| 150 |
| 14 |
| 32 |
| 5 |
| 25 |
| 5 |
| 24 |
| .213 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
