MLB · Relief Pitcher · San Diego Padres
6' 5", 200 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 9.3% | 9.4% | 9.8% | 0.0646 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | SD | 41 | 0 | 42.7 | 21 | 4 | 15 | 79 | 0.84 | 0.84 |
| 2025 | SD | 60 | 0 | 61.7 | 28 | 18 | 28 | 104 | 2.63 | 0.91 |
| Strikeout | 48.8% | 42.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 12.3% | 13.5% | 14.0% | 0.1184 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 0.6% | 3.7% | 4.1% | 0.0465 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0051 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 0.0% | 2.4% | 2.9% | 0.0474 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .180 | .282 | .315 | 0.2820 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 162 | .180 | .282 | 108 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 230 | .223 | .282 | 106 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 246 | .217 | .270 | 110 |
| 2024 |
| OAK |
| 55 |
| 0 |
| 65.0 |
| 36 |
| 18 |
| 21 |
| 104 |
| 2.49 |
| 0.88 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
