MLB · Starting Pitcher · Arizona Diamondbacks
6' 3", 210 lbs · age 28 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 7.4% | 7.9% | 9.8% | 0.0548 | 162 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | ARI | 34 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1.000 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | ARI | 15 | 15 | 83.3 | 81 | 46 | 22 | 62 | 4.97 | 1.24 |
| 2025 | ARI | 33 | 23 | 154.0 | 124 | 58 | 41 | 132 | 3.39 | 1.07 |
| Strikeout | 17.6% | 18.9% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 12.7% | 13.4% | 14.0% | 0.1174 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 4.5% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 0.0526 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0056 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 5.1% | 3.6% | 2.9% | 0.0724 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .331 | .303 | .315 | 0.3027 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 353 | .331 | .303 | 101 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 619 | .282 | .277 | 108 |
| 2024 | pitcher | 627 | .319 | .289 | 103 |
| 2024 |
| ARI |
| 28 |
| 25 |
| 150.7 |
| 155 |
| 71 |
| 34 |
| 126 |
| 4.24 |
| 1.25 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
