MLB · Starting Pitcher · Toronto Blue Jays
6' 4", 225 lbs · age 23 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 12.5% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 0.0773 | 162 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TOR | 16 | 16 | 85.0 | 58 | 37 | 42 | 87 | 3.92 | 1.18 |
| 2025 | TOR | 3 | 3 | 14.0 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 16 | 3.21 | 1.43 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Strikeout | 24.8% | 24.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 83 |
|---|
| Single | 8.0% | 11.7% | 14.0% | 0.1026 | 510 |
|---|
| Double | 5.7% | 4.5% | 4.1% | 0.0560 | 1194 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0049 | 4400 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.9% | 0.0555 | 647 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .285 | .296 | .315 | 0.2962 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | pitcher | 351 | .285 | .296 | 103 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 62 | .274 | .300 | 99 |
