MLB · Center Fielder · Boston Red Sox
5' 10", 165 lbs · age 25 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 6.0% | 7.4% | 9.8% | 0.0507 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | BOS | 98 | 376 | 49 | 106 | 10 | 45 | 18 | 79 | .282 |
| 2025 | BOS | 156 | 546 | 84 | 136 | 16 | 63 | 28 | 117 | .249 |
| Strikeout | 19.8% | 19.3% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 17.0% | 15.9% | 14.0% | 0.1396 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 6.3% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.0539 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.8% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.0074 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.0534 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .330 | .305 | .303 | 0.3051 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 400 | .330 | .305 | 100 |
| 2025 | batter | 584 | .304 | .291 | 97 |
| 2024 | batter | 568 | .283 | .286 | 96 |
| 2024 |
| BOS |
| 151 |
| 541 |
| 70 |
| 134 |
| 15 |
| 75 |
| 15 |
| 151 |
| .248 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
