MLB · Relief Pitcher · Washington Nationals
6' 2", 190 lbs · age 30 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
ERA
WHIP
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 13.3% | 10.2% | 9.1% | 0.0703 | 166 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | WSH | 5 | 0 | 5.0 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 0.00 | 1.20 |
| 2025 | CHC | 2 | 0 | 4.0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2.25 | 1.00 |
| Strikeout | 20.0% | 22.1% | 22.9% | 0.0000 | 89 |
|---|
| Single | 24.0% | 15.6% | 14.0% | 0.1371 | 392 |
|---|
| Double | 2.7% | 4.2% | 4.2% | 0.0516 | 1240 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0051 | 2365 |
|---|
| Home run | 4.0% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 0.0560 | 803 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .416 | .320 | .310 | 0.3201 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| SD |
| 17 |
| 0 |
| 13.7 |
| 20 |
| 18 |
| 6 |
| 15 |
| 11.85 |
| 1.90 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
