MLB · Left Fielder · Toronto Blue Jays
5' 8", 190 lbs · age 27 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 15.6% | 13.0% | 9.8% | 0.0898 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | TOR | 51 | 102 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 41 | .147 |
| 2025 | TOR | 82 | 188 | 33 | 44 | 11 | 31 | 36 | 60 | .234 |
| Strikeout | 33.6% | 29.4% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 5.7% | 11.4% | 14.0% | 0.1002 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 4.1% | 4.1% | 4.1% | 0.0514 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.0% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0048 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 2.5% | 2.7% | 2.9% | 0.0554 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .258 | .302 | .303 | 0.3016 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 122 | .258 | .302 | 99 |
| 2025 | batter | 227 | .349 | .353 | 118 |
| 2024 | batter | 454 | .275 | .290 | 97 |
| 2024 |
| TOR |
| 135 |
| 397 |
| 48 |
| 76 |
| 13 |
| 46 |
| 47 |
| 144 |
| .191 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
