MLB · First Baseman · Colorado Rockies
6' 5", 238 lbs · age 26 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 12.2% | 11.7% | 9.8% | 0.0808 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | COL | 102 | 359 | 45 | 108 | 13 | 53 | 43 | 58 | .301 |
| 2025 | NYY | 4 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | .286 |
| Strikeout | 14.1% | 14.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 17.3% | 16.1% | 14.0% | 0.1416 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 5.4% | 4.3% | 4.1% | 0.0529 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0060 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 3.2% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 0.0611 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .373 | .342 | .303 | 0.3425 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| 2024 |
| NYY |
| 3 |
| 2 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 0 |
| 1 |
| 1 |
| .000 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
