MLB · Third Baseman · Miami Marlins
5' 7", 150 lbs · age 23 · profile line from ESPN, best-effort
Rolling form against the season-to-date baseline, game by game. Computed with the same windowed primitives the models backtest with, gates included: the shaded band is where the window had no real sample yet, so no value is drawn there rather than a guess.
Batting average
Each outcome is fit as logit P = μ + βbatter + πpitcher across every plate appearance in the season, so hitter and pitcher skill are solved together rather than one being assumed. The adjusted column is this player against a league-average opponent; the run value is that rate priced by its wOBA weight (a walk is worth .690 runs, a home run 2.015), and those values sum to the adjusted wOBA above.
| Outcome | Actual | Adjusted | League | Run value | Regressed, PA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Walk / HBP | 5.2% | 7.0% | 9.8% | 0.0486 | 137 |
| season | team | g | ab | r | h | hr | rbi | bb | k | avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | MIA | 86 | 255 | 25 | 69 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 22 | .271 |
| 2025 | MIA | 120 | 309 | 40 | 76 | 6 | 38 | 19 | 40 | .246 |
| season | team | g | gs | ip | h | er | bb | k | era | whip |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | MIA | 3 | 0 | 4.0 | 10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 13.50 | 3.00 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
| Strikeout | 8.1% | 10.5% | 22.2% | 0.0000 | 50 |
|---|
| Single | 16.3% | 15.2% | 14.0% | 0.1337 | 246 |
|---|
| Double | 7.4% | 4.4% | 4.1% | 0.0541 | 3972 |
|---|
| Triple | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.0068 | 922 |
|---|
| Home run | 1.1% | 2.0% | 2.9% | 0.0412 | 232 |
|---|
| Adjusted wOBA | .305 | .284 | .303 | 0.2844 |
|---|
Regressed is how many plate appearances of league-average performance are blended in before a rate is believed — estimated from the spread of the league itself, not chosen. Strikeout rate separates hitters quickly and is barely touched; doubles are mostly noise and are pulled hard toward average. It is why a hot 30-PA cameo does not top this list.
The opponent effect is usually small over a full season, and that is a finding rather than a shortcoming: individual pitchers differ enormously (wOBA allowed spans roughly .263 to .342), but across hundreds of plate appearances almost everyone faces a near-representative sample. The adjustment moves part-time players far more than regulars.
| Season | Role | PA | Raw | Adjusted | Index |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | batter | 270 | .305 | .284 | 93 |
| 2025 | batter | 338 | .292 | .279 | 93 |
| 2025 | pitcher | 54 | .559 | .322 | 93 |
| 2024 | batter | 36 | .234 | .286 | 96 |
| 2024 |
| MIA |
| 15 |
| 35 |
| 3 |
| 8 |
| 0 |
| 2 |
| 1 |
| 4 |
| .229 |
Aggregated from the per-game rows, so a season total always equals the sum of the games behind it. Seasons before the coverage window are absent rather than partial.
