| venue | BOS | LAD | line | as of |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | 37.0c | 63.0c | ask 38.0c | 08:25Z |
| Kalshi ↗ | 37.5c | 62.5c | ask 40.0c | 08:25Z |
P(BOS wins) over time, by venue
At first pitch: 74°F, wind 5 mph from the WSW (gusts 6), 0% chance of precipitation.
| hour (UTC) | temp | wind | gusts | precip | humidity |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01:00 | 80°F | 7 mph WSW | 10 | 0% | 56% |
| 02:00 | 77°F | 6 mph WSW | 9 | 0% | 61% |
| 03:00game | 74°F | 5 mph WSW | 6 | 0% | 68% |
| 04:00game | 73°F | 4 mph SW | 5 | 0% | 67% |
| 05:00game | 74°F | 4 mph SW | 4 | 0% | 62% |
| 06:00game | 76°F | 4 mph SW | 3 | 0% | 56% |
| 07:00 | 78°F | 4 mph SSW | 3 | 0% | 48% |
| 08:00 | 77°F | 5 mph SSW | 4 | 0% |
Hourly forecast, refreshed with the capture cron — weather data by Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0).
No spread or total captured for this game yet — those rows accrue with the hourly capture as venues quote them.
| 50% |
BOS
55–54 · .505
LAD
69–41 · .627
Run figures rather than team ERA and OPS: innings pitched and slugging do not survive the publish step, so those two are not computable here and a proxy under their name would be worse than their absence.
No meetings yet in the 2026 record.
A fantasy app would put a projected line on every row here. This one does not have a projection worth printing: the form and head-to-head features on this page were tested as model inputs against the market and came back null, with weights that flipped sign between refits.
So they stay what they honestly are — context for reading tonight, not a forecast. The record of that test is in the research log.
Bars are hits per game over the team's last ten — a hairline is a game this batter did not appear in, never an estimate and never a gap in the sequence. L10 comes from the same rolling primitives the models backtest with, so a batter under the window minimum shows a gap rather than a guess. 9 of these splits show “—” because the sample is under 8 at-bats: that is an anecdote, not a rate, and the at-bat count is left visible so you can see how thin it was.
Bars are hits per game over the team's last ten — a hairline is a game this batter did not appear in, never an estimate and never a gap in the sequence. L10 comes from the same rolling primitives the models backtest with, so a batter under the window minimum shows a gap rather than a guess. 9 of these splits show “—” because the sample is under 8 at-bats: that is an anecdote, not a rate, and the at-bat count is left visible so you can see how thin it was.
