Real football data and the betting record around it — every box score since 2019, team pages, cross-venue odds, and a model held honestly to the market's price.
| team | W-L-T | PF | PA | diff | off yd/g | def yd/g | TO margin | poss/g |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEASeattle Seahawks | 14-3 | 483 | 292 | +191 | 351 | 286 | -3 | 30:12 |
| NENew England Patriots | 14-3 | 490 | 320 | +170 | 379 | 295 | +3 | 31:18 |
| DENDenver Broncos | 14-3 | 401 | 311 | +90 | 343 | 278 | -3 | 31:14 |
| JAXJacksonville Jaguars | 13-4 | 474 | 336 | +138 | 337 | 304 | +13 | 31:56 |
| LARLos Angeles Rams | 12-5 | 518 | 346 | +172 | 395 | 328 | +11 | 30:46 |
| BUFBuffalo Bills | 12-5 | 481 | 365 | +116 | 376 | 293 | +1 | 33:09 |
| HOUHouston Texans | 12-5 | 404 | 295 | +109 | 327 | 277 | +17 | 31:49 |
| SFSan Francisco 49ers | 12-5 | 437 | 371 | +66 | 351 | 340 | -6 | 30:54 |
A two-feature win-probability model (skill vs the line of scrimmage) tested out-of-sample against the market — the market wins, and the gap between the two ratings is the interesting finding. How it works → · the record →
| 340–417 |
| 0–3 |
| 32:26–39:15 |
| box → |
| Divisional | SF @ SEA | 6–41 | 236–281 | 3–0 | 28:49–31:11 | box → |
| Divisional | HOU @ NE | 16–28 | 241–248 | 5–3 | 27:51–32:09 | box → |
| Divisional | BUF @ DEN | 30–33 | 449–349 | 5–1 | 40:58–29:18 | box → |
| Wild Card | HOU @ PIT | 30–6 | 408–175 | 3–2 | 32:22–27:38 | box → |
